According to the General Department of Vietnam Customs, in the first eight months of this year, the country’s export revenue stood at US$213.52 billion, up 21.8 percent year-on-year.
Based on the eight-month performance, together with the latest market situation, economists have drawn up two scenarios for Vietnam’s exports in the remaining months and the whole year.
Under the first scenario when the COVID-19 pandemic is put under control in October, the export value for the remaining four months of the year would reach US$108.8 billion and US$322 billion for the entire year, up 14.3 percent from last year.
Meanwhile, under the second scenario when the pandemic is only contained at the end of the year, the revenue is projected to go down 4.4 percent to US$102.7 billion in the four-month period, and total US$316 billion for the year, an increase of 11.8 percent.
The projected value of US$316 billion in the second scenario is still higher than the record US$315 billion last year, and represents a double-digit rise year-on-year.
The country recorded a trade deficit of over US$2.6 billion in the past eight months, partially due to the impact of COVID-19 and social distancing imposed in many cities and provinces, including major economic centres, along with shortcomings in domestic support industries and limitations in the control of product origin.
Vietnam ran the largest trade deficit with China, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan (China), Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. Specifically, Vietnam’s trade with Cambodia shifted to a deficit. To boost exports in the remaining months, it is a must for Vietnam to contain COVID-19 and ensure the circulation of goods, particularly exports.
Vietnam also needs to enhance support industries, assist firms operating in for-export production and business in the form of financial mechanisms and policies to promote start-ups and reduce the number of suspended and dissolved enterprises, and restructure import markets, experts said.
