Vietnam’s economy is projected to recover steadily and stand out from many emerging markets in the coming time, said Glenn Maguire, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at ANZ Bank.
Speaking at a workshop in Hanoi on Wednesday, Maguire said Vietnam’s economy is a rare source of light amidst the gloom in most emerging markets.
In a global economic report launched at the event, ANZ said Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter posted a higher than targeted 6.5% year-on-year growth, leading the bank to once again raise its GDP forecast to 6.8% in 2015 and 6.9-7% in 2016 (from 6.5% and 6.5% respectively) for this economy.
In 2017, Vietnam is expected to obtain GDP growth of 7-7.5%. From now to 2017, Vietnam will see stronger economic recovery than regional economies with GDP growth higher than China’s by one percentage point in 2017, said the expert.
Indicators showed Vietnam’s economy is on high growth path. The report said Vietnam’s auto sales hit over 124,000 cars between January and August, a sharp rise compared to 76,000 units in the same period last year, suggesting that consumers are confident in the economic outlook. Auto revenue is an important factor to measure a country’s economic situation and consumer confidence.
Aside from the Government’s spending tightening and budget allocation measures, the rapid economic growth will help reduce the nation’s public debt, Maguire commented.
He noted that Vietnam’s public debt is not as worrying as other regional countries such as Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore. ANZ forecast the nation’s public debt to remain stable at around 50% of GDP, the highest level before falling given better economic situation.
ANZ’s public debt forecast is much lower than that predicted by the Finance Ministry at 59% of GDP or other agencies at 64%.
Besides, ANZ said Vietnam, India and the Philippines will posted the strongest GDP growth rates in Asia, higher than Malaysia, Indonesia Singapore and Thailand.
Global economies have different impacts and interactions against the U.S. and China. The two nations have impacts on large exporters in Asia, including Vietnam.
China’s economic slowdown has strongly influenced Asian countries. At present, Asia has plunged into two periods of trade crisis, with both exports and imports posting double-digit declines.
However, Vietnam is among the three nations with a better outlook. Vietnam dong has remained stable while regional currencies such as Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia have been weaker due to undiversified export structures.
