A volatile year
In 2019, shrimp exports have many fluctuations due to various reasons: increased shrimp production, reduced shrimp prices, while the number of shrimp stocks in markets is still high, the supply of shrimp from other countries have increased, that has caused shrimp prices in many import markets to be lower than before.
On the other hand, some markets, including China, have tightened quality control and traceability of imported goods, as well as the impacts caused by the US-China trade tensions, which made our country's agricultural exports in general, shrimp export in particular encounter difficulties and instabilities.
This is clearly shown in some key markets: firstly, the European Union (EU) market which accounts for 20.6% of Vietnam's total shrimp export value, but in 2019, shrimp exports to this market reached only US$ 696.2 million, down 16.9% compared to 2018. Also following the decreasing trend, shrimp exports to Japans market in 2019 reached US$ 618.6 million, down 3.3% compared to 2018.
In contrast, some markets increase Vietnam's shrimp imports in 2019. Typically, the Vietnam's second shrimp imports market is the US. For the whole year of 2019, Vietnam's shrimp exports to this market reached US $ 653.9 million, up 2.5% compared to 2018. Although the growth rate is not high, Vietnamese shrimp to the US maintain their export value with much stability compared to 2018.
It is worth mentioning that in 2019, some emerging markets have increased Vietnam's shrimp imports with very high growth rates such as Australia. This is Vietnam's seventh largest shrimp import market, accounting for 3.8% of Vietnam's total shrimp export value. From April 2019 to the end of the year, Vietnam's shrimp exports to Australia continued to increase, of which the largest increase was 56% in July, up 45% in November and recorded the highest growth in the top 10 main shrimp import markets of Vietnam. For the whole year of 2019, Vietnam's shrimp exports to Australia reached about US$ 121 million, up 12.6% over the same period in 2018.
Many potential markets
It is predicted that by 2020, the domestic and international shrimp market will have many changes with significant impacts on the growth of Vietnam's shrimp export industry. It is worth mentioning that these fluctuations are expected to produce more optimistic signals than in 2019, based on specific analysis from the key markets.
In the EU, the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), expected to come into effect in 2020, can create expectations for Vietnam's shrimp exports to this market. According to EVFTA, the import tax for most raw shrimp (fresh, frozen, chilled) to the EU market will be reduced from the basic tariff of 12% to 20% to 0%, the import tax for processed shrimp will be 0% after seven years since the agreement entered into force. Compared with other countries, Vietnam has a clear advantage with frozen black tiger shrimp and white leg shrimp exports when black tiger shrimp is reduced from the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) tariffs at 4.2% to 0% upon the EVFTA entering into force; Frozen whiteleg shrimp will gradually decline to 0% after 5 years, while Thailand is not entitled to GSP, and hasn’t signed the FTA, enjoying a basic tax rate of 12%, and India without FTA enjoying the GSP at 4.2%.
The EU has a high per capita income, the more favored products are, the high-end market segment is wide enough for Vietnamese shrimp businesses to choose medium-sized aquatic distribution systems. his application.
Notably, in the US market, in August 2019, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) announced the final results of the 13th administrative review (POR 13) on anti-dumping tax on Vietnamese shrimp. The South entered the US with 31 businesses enjoying 0% tax, opening many good opportunities for Vietnamese shrimp exporters.
The EU has a high per capita income, the high-end market segment is wide enough for Vietnamese shrimp businesses to choose their aquatic distribution systems.
Notably, in the US market, in August 2019, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) announced the final results of the 13th administrative review (POR 13) on anti-dumping tax on Vietnamese shrimp to the US with a tax rate of 0%, opening many good opportunities for Vietnamese shrimp exporters.
In addition to these two major markets, it is forecasted that another major shrimp import market of Vietnam - Japan - will also increase the number of imported shrimp, because the Tokyo Olympic 2020 will boost seafood consumption. Especially the demand for shrimp is expected to increase, creating opportunities for shrimp exporting countries.
For China, currently, 75% to 80% of Vietnam's seafood exports have been officially exported to the market, which is an important factor helping the recovery and growth of shrimp exports to this market in the near future. In addition, some recent emerging markets such as Australia are expected to continue to maintain the growth rate of Vietnam's shrimp imports such as 2019, which will also contribute to boosting the shrimp processing and export industry of Vietnam.
