A group of economists from the National Economics University have forecasted that Vietnam’s GDP growth in the April-June period will slow to 2% or even lower in a worst case scenario.
Exports are expected to fall by 25% in the second quarter and 15% in the third and fourth quarters.
But they cautioned that such figures are just relative since the crisis caused by the coronavirus is both unexpected and extremely unpredictable.
The Vietnamese economy is projected to continue facing difficulties in the coming months while foreign investment is also predicted to fall as foreign enterprises suspend any increase in investment as the epidemic has yet to subside in many countries.
According to economist Nguyen Tri Hieu, the entire economy will see the impacts of COVID-19 in the second quarter, from tourism and aviation to exports in both supply and demand.
He stated that the epidemic is developing in an unpredictable way so it is still too early to make any projection about GDP growth in the second quarter.
Hieu warned that if the epidemic is not contained by the end of the quarter, Vietnam’s exports will fall to very low levels as Vietnam is a highly open economy.
According to Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung, it is first necessary to assess the impacts of the epidemic on each sector and identify new trends and opportunities in order for the economy to recover when the epidemic is over.
