The results of the General Statistics Office (GSO)’s quarterly survey on production and business trends show that 83.6% of enterprises predict their new export orders in the fourth quarter will remain the same or increase compared to the previous quarter.
Orders secured through the end of the year
Instead of having to search for orders weekly or monthly like last year, Than Duc Viet, General Director of Garment 10 Corporation, said that from the beginning of 2024 until now, exports to the US, EU and other markets have been steady throughout the months, and the company now has orders secured through the end of the 2025 Lunar New Year holiday.
He added that along with the positive export market and recovering domestic market, as of the end of September, the company’s revenue had increased by over 8% compared to the same period last year, and it paid 44 billion VND in various taxes to the state budget, a 14% increase compared to the same period last year.
According to Vu Duc Giang, Chairman of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association, the garment industry’s export turnover reached 32.5 billion USD in the first 9 months of 2024, up 9.2% compared to the same period last year.
For a while now, most garment enterprises have secured export orders through the end of the year and have been actively negotiating export orders for the first quarter of 2025. The garment sector’s export value for the year is forecast to reach the target of 44 billion USD, significantly contributing to the country’s overall export performance.
Similarly, Phan Thi Thanh Xuan, Vice Chairwoman and Secretary-General of the Vietnam Leather, Footwear and Handbag Association, stated that in the first nine months, footwear exports reached 16.538 billion USD, an increase of 12.5% compared to the same period last year.
The leather and footwear industry is likely to reach its target of 27 billion USD this year, as orders for domestic leather and footwear manufacturers are improving towards the end of the year, thanks to the approaching peak production season for the year-end holidays. Companies in the industry are accelerating their recruitment efforts to ensure delivery deadlines are met.
Commenting on these results, Dinh Thi Thuy Phuong, Head of the GSO’s Trade and Service Statistics Department, said that among the 45 main exports, in the first 9 months of 2024, 38 exports (84.4%) registered an increase compared to the same period in 2023 and accounted for 92.9% of the total export value.
These results were achieved thanks to the government’s aggressive leadership and businesses’ resolve to capitalise on free trade agreements, strengthen trade promotion and advertise Vietnamese products in international markets. The figures also affirm that the quality of Vietnamese goods has gained global trust.
Phuong emphasised that this reflects the increasing global demand for certain Vietnamese products, the recovery of domestic production, and the ability to meet domestic and export demands in the coming period.
Closely monitoring market developments
Recently, S&P Global released a report showing that Vietnam’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined from 52.4 in August 2024 to 47.3 in September. This result indicates that the manufacturing sector’s health has significantly weakened, particularly since November last year.
Andrew Harker, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said Typhoon Yagi’s severity had a major impact on the Vietnamese manufacturing sector. Heavy rain and flooding caused temporary business closures and delays to supply chains and production lines. As a result, output, new orders, purchasing and stocks of inputs all declined. The disruption is set to be temporary, and firms remained confident in the outlook for production, raising employment accordingly.
The report noted that sentiment ticked up to a three-month high, with firms confident that demand will strengthen. Positive expectations and marked rises in new orders in previous months led manufacturers to expand their staffing levels slightly in September, following a fall in the previous month. Employment has increased in three of the past four months.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT), although exports have achieved strong growth, this is mainly due to the relatively low growth base from the previous year. Furthermore, this growth rate is lower than the same period in the years before the COVID-19 pandemic.
The export prices of some agricultural products such as rice, pepper and coffee have increased sharply, which helps increase export value but poses risks of supply chain disruption due to the lack of professionalism among businesses and suppliers.
Vietnam’s key exports to major markets like the EU and the US face pressure from trade defence investigations, origin fraud and technical barriers related to environmental protection, sustainable development and green transformation.
Therefore, in the coming time, the MOIT will continue to closely monitor market developments and countries’ import-export policies to promptly inform associations and businesses.
The focus will be on the Russia-Ukraine war situation, escalating conflicts in the Gaza Strip and the Red Sea, and developments in China-EU trade tensions. This includes trends in sustainable development and greening in the EU, as well as new regulations in supply chain verification by EU countries for export industries.
Additionally, the MOIT will focus on increasing export promotion activities in key markets, particularly maximising the benefits from free trade agreements such as the CPTPP, EVFTA and RCEP.
The ministry will accelerate negotiations, signing and ratification of new trade pacts and economic partnerships, initially with Israel and the United Arab Emirates, to diversify markets and supply chains and boost exports. It will also support businesses conducting trade promotion activities in new and potential markets that individual businesses have yet to have the opportunity to penetrate directly.
Regarding the rapid shift towards official export channels, the MOIT will collaborate with domestic agencies and localities to strengthen exchanges with Chinese authorities and localities to improve efficiency and better regulate the customs clearance speed for import-export goods at border crossings between Vietnam and China, especially for seasonal agricultural and aquatic products.
The ministry will implement measures to promote cooperation with China on border trade infrastructure and encourage the development of border trade infrastructure in northern border provinces.
In addition, it will strengthen early warning systems for foreign trade defence cases against Vietnamese exports and support businesses in responding to trade defence cases that are being or have been investigated by foreign countries.
