According to the VPI’s prediction, which was given with the support of the petrol price forecasting model using Machine Learning, the retail price of RON95 may increase 197 VND per litre to 22,110 VND (0.94 USD) per litre, while the price of E5 biofuel is forecast to rise by 5 VND per litre or remain unchanged at 20,870 VND per litre.
Meanwhile, the price of diesel is predicted to rise to 18,189 VND per litre, and that of kerosene may be pushed up by 205 VND per litre to 18,025 VND per litre.
Meanwhile, the price of mazut is predicted to fall by 27 VND per litre to 14,683 VND per kilo. The VPI also predicted that management agencies may extract about 300 VND from each litre of petrol products for the fund for petrol price stabilisation.
In the world market, on June 19 morning, the price of Brent oil fell by 68 cents to 75.93 USD per barrel, while the WTI oil price fell by 59 cents to be traded at 71.19 USD per barrel. Global crude oil prices dropped due to concerns about a slow recovery of the Chinese economy despite the impact of OPEC production cuts from last week and a decrease in the number of oil and gas rigs operating in the US.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised up its forecast for global oil demand in 2023 by 2.4 million barrel per day to a record high of 102.3 million barrel per day. However, the IEA forecast that global oil demand will decline by 860,000 barrel per day in 2024 due to unfavourable economic growth prediction. Global oil supply is forecast to increase slightly at 101.3 million barrel per day in 2023 and 102.3 million barrel per day in 2024.
Wood Mackenzie revised down its 2023 average Brent oil price forecast from 84.7 VND per barrel to 84.3 USD per barrel. Goldman Sachs also forecast that the oil price at the end of 2023 will decrease by nearly 10%, of which the average Brent oil price will reach 86 USD each barrel and the average WTI oil price will reach 81 USD per barrel in December 2023.
At the same time, JPMorgan also lowered its oil price forecast for 2023 with Brent falling from 90 USD per barrel to 81 USD per barrel, and WTI dropping from 84 USD per barrel to 76 USD per barrel. In 2024, JPMorgan reduced its forecast for Brent oil price from 98 USD per barrel to 83 USD per barrel and WTI oil price from 94 USD per barrel to 79 USD per barrel.
VPI experts held that in the next few weeks, the petrol prices will continuously fluctuate when inflation data and interest rate adjustments are announced.
In case the US Federal Reserve (FED) decides to keep interest rates unchanged and the US Department of Energy continues to look for opportunities to buy additional oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the decline trend in oil prices may be reversed. Accordingly, VPI experts forecast that Brent oil price in 2023 will be traded at an average price of 82 USD per barrel.
