Speaking at the workshop, jointly held by the Institute of Economics and Finance under the Academy of Finance and the Price Management Department at the Ministry of Finance, Deputy Director of the Institute Nguyen Duc Do explained that the world economy, especially the US and China, is expected to slow this year.
Given this, Vietnam’s exports are projected to remain modest, he said. The struggling real estate market will adversely affect the entire economy and lead to low growth in the year.
Do also set out several scenarios for the consumer price index (CPI) growth, the main gauge of inflation, ranging from 2.5% to 3.5%.
Economist Dinh Trong Thinh said Vietnamese enterprises will optimise opportunities generated by free trade agreements (FTAs) and the economy would grow 5.5%-6.5%, with inflation hovering around 3.2% - 3.5%.
Associate Professor, Dr. Ngo Tri Long stressed that the inflation target of 4% - 4.5% approved by the National Assembly would be possible thanks to the Government’s experience in price management, plus aggregate demand yet to show signs of rebound.
However, the factors that cause inflationary pressure still remain, but the outlook is better in a number of countries, reducing the once high CPI growth forecast due to service fee adjustments, heard the workshop.
Its Price Management Department will also keep a close watch on economic developments and impacts of global inflation on Vietnam to take appropriate solutions, while closely monitoring the domestic market to give policy consultation and flexible management scenarios.
Statistics show that Vietnam’s CPI rose 3.25% in 2023, much lower than the target of about 4.5%.
Economists reported that the building of price management scenarios that match the reality is an important basis to control inflation.
