With a 16.2% increase in export revenue over the past 10 months, Vietnam’s export turnover in 2025 are on track for a strong finish, likely to surpass expectations and far exceed the initial annual target of 12%.
Growth exceeds target
For the past four consecutive months, export turnover has exceeded 42 billion USD per month — a performance that has propelled overall export growth well beyond the set target. If Vietnam maintains an average of 40 billion USD in export earnings per month over the remaining two months of the year, the total export value could hit a record high of 470 – 471 billion USD, far exceeding expectations. Vietnam’s robust trade momentum is set to play a key role in driving the economic growth this year, prompting several international organisations to raise their 2025 GDP growth forecasts for the country by 1–1.5%.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the Standard Chartered Bank in October raised its forecast for Vietnam’s 2025 economic growth to 7.5% from 6.1% projected in July, and to 7.2% for 2026. The Hong Kong-Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) lifted its forecast to 7.9% from 6.6% this year, and 6.7% for 2026, while Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) increased its 2025 forecast to 7.5% from 6.9%. Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) updated its forecast, raising it to 6.7%.
In its latest macroeconomic report, the Standard Chartered Bank noted that Vietnam continues to strengthen its position in the global supply chain, driven by robust trade and deeper integration into global trade activities through many free trade agreements (FTAs).
In October alone, the country’s total export turnover reached 42.05 billion USD, up 17.5% year-on-year, driven by strong growth in key sectors such as electronics and computers (up 47.9%), phones (4.7%), machinery (12.2%), and transport equipment and parts (13.5%).
By the end of October, cumulative exports in the electronics sector reached 136 billion USD, setting a record since the industry began exporting. With nearly 50% year-on-year growth, the electronics, computers, and components industry has firmly established itself as a cornerstone of Vietnam’s exports.
Tim Leelahaphan, Senior Economist for Vietnam and Thailand at Standard Chartered, noted that Vietnam’s resilience and adaptability are demonstrated by its successful attraction of strong FDI inflows, steady export growth, and reinforced strategic role in diversifying global supply chains.
Busy with year-end orders
This period marks the peak production season for export industries. Many textile, seafood, and wood product companies are striving to fulfil export orders during the year-end high season. In 2025, the textile industry targets 47 – 48 billion USD in export turnover. After 10 months, exports reached 33 billion USD, up 7.6%, highlighting a positive export outlook despite a series of unfavourable tariff policies.
General Director of the Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex) Cao Huu Hieu, said that amid major market policy fluctuations and US’s tariff policies, early market monitoring and forecasting, and flexible responses significantly mitigated negative impacts. A large volume of orders was successfully fulfilled during the reciprocal tariff suspension period.
In the first nine months of 2025, the firm reported revenue of nearly 15 trillion VND, achieving 80% of the annual target and 110% of the same period last year, while its pre-tax profit hitting around 1.04 trillion VND, completing 114% of the plan set for the year, and doubling that of 2024.
If this momentum continues, Vinatex could approach a pre-tax profit of 1.4 trillion VND, near the record set in 2021, Hieu said, stressing that the major challenge currently facing the firm is ensuring compliance with product origin regulations to benefit from FTAs, particularly to avoid the risk of additional tariffs on transshipped goods.
Vietnam’s seafood industry is expected to achieve a successful finish in 2025, targeting export turnover of 10.5–11 billion USD, up from 10 billion USD in 2024. This optimism is driven by the sector’s recovery, rising demand in big markets such as the US and China, and efforts by companies to diversify markets and improve product quality.
According to Anthony Tan, Deputy Group Head and Principal Economist at the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), Vietnam’s economy has rebounded strongly thanks to reforms and rising exports.
In the medium to long term, by continuing to improve productivity, expand regional supply chains, and attract high-quality investment, Vietnam is likely to sustain stable and sustainable growth in the coming years, insiders said.
Vietnam’s competitive production costs, skilled workforce, and strong supply chain connectivity will help the Southeast Asian country further strengthen its position in the global production network, thereby boosting productivity and upgrading its national industrial base, they noted.
