Le Thanh Hai, deputy director of the Centre, stated that there is a 50-55% chance for El Niño to develop as early as May. If El Niño develops, it could have implications on the upcoming typhoon season and the overall weather pattern across Vietnam into next winter.
El Niño occurs when the water temperature in the Pacific Ocean near the equator is warmer than normal for an extended period.
However, there remains a great deal of uncertainty, commonly referred to as the ‘spring barrier,’ because the weather models to forecast El Niño in the spring are typically not very accurate.
While signs point toward El Niño returning, it is not a sure thing, said Hai, adding that confidence is slowly growing that it will develop. If so, Vietnamese can expect scorching hot weather this summer along with more frequent rainstorms.
During an El Niño year, the winds at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere are not favourable for the development of typhoons, so Vietnam could expect fewer and less severe tropical systems to develop.
