Standard Chartered lifts forecast for Vietnam’s 2024 GDP growth to 6.8%

In a report released on October 18, the bank’s economists said the country’s economic growth momentum has been relatively strong, with improvement across multiple sectors, including imports and exports, retail sales, real estate, tourism, construction, and manufacturing.

Trade recovery and increased business activities and foreign investment will be the main boosters for 2025 and beyond, they added.

Tim Leelahaphan, Standard Chartered Bank economist for Thailand and Vietnam, said: "While we remain cautious on Vietnam’s economy near-term, we also acknowledge the economy’s ability to perform better than market expectations.

"The government’s push for stronger economic growth may help maintain low interest rates in the near future, and Fed moves will also be key to the State Bank of Vietnam’s monetary policy decisions. We now expect a 50-basis point rate hike next year, rather than in Q4/2024 as previously anticipated."

Standard Chartered forecasts Fed rate cuts, which should lead to a softer USD bias over the next few quarters, will result in a USD/VND exchange rate at 24,500 by the end of 2024 and 24,300 by mid-2025.